Conflict Duration
Day 21
Since Feb 28, 2026 — "Operation Epic Fury"
Brent Crude Oil
$108/bbl
▲ 55% since conflict start ($70 → $108). Brent hit $113.71 intraday.
Strait of Hormuz
BLOCKADE
A-10 Warthogs hunting fast-attack boats. Iran's surface fleet 'no longer a factor' — Pentagon.
Global Oil Disruption
15-20M bpd
Qatar LNG plant still offline. Brent-WTI spread widest in 11 years ($108 vs $96 WTI).
Iranian Civilian Casualties
1,400+
17,000+ injured. 1,000+ children injured. 3.2M displaced. 20,000+ civilian buildings damaged.
IEA Emergency Release
172M bbls
Record US SPR release continues. $200B supplemental war funding requested.
Ships Attacked/Damaged
20+
120+ Iranian naval vessels destroyed/sunk. 11 submarines gone. Military ports crippled.
US Minelayer Ships Hit
120+
CENTCOM: surface fleet 'no longer a factor.' Submarines eliminated. Battle damage assessments ongoing.
🕑 Conflict Timeline — Key Events
-
Mar 20Pentagon: Iran's navy is 'gone' — 7,000+ targets struck in 21 daysHegseth: 'We've struck over 7,000 targets across Iran. Their surface fleet is no longer a factor. Their 11 submarines are gone. Military ports crippled.' Ballistic missile attacks against US forces down 90%. [Military.com]
-
Mar 20Hegseth signals 'largest strike package yet' against IranUS Defense Secretary announces new phase of operations with 'the largest strike package yet.' Pentagon requests $200B supplemental war funding. Air defenses 'flattened,' missile/drone production 'overwhelmingly destroyed.' [Times of Israel]
-
Mar 20Iranian missile hits Haifa oil refinery — power briefly disruptedIranian ballistic missile strikes near Haifa oil refinery. No major structural damage reported but power briefly disrupted. Separate barrage targets Ashdod military sites. 8th missile barrage since midnight.
-
Mar 20Lebanon death toll surpasses 1,000 — 118 children killedLebanese Health Ministry: 1,001 killed since March 2, including 79 women, 118 children, 40 healthcare workers. 2,584 wounded. 1M+ displaced. UN says strikes may constitute war crimes. [Al Jazeera]
-
Mar 20Cluster munitions kill 4 in Israel — first Palestinian fatalities from Iranian fireIranian cluster munition strikes kill foreign worker in central Israel and 3 Palestinians near Hebron (two women and a teenage girl) — first Palestinian deaths from Iranian attacks. Israel death toll rises to 20+.
-
Mar 20Netanyahu: Iran no longer has capacity to enrich uranium or make ballistic missilesIsraeli PM claims 20 days of strikes have destroyed Iran's nuclear enrichment and ballistic missile production capacity. IAEA disputes, saying nuclear knowledge persists. [Indian Express]
-
Mar 20UAE intercepted 334 ballistic missiles, 1,714 drones total since war beganUAE air defenses intercepted 7 ballistic missiles and 15 drones on Mar 19 alone. Total: 334 ballistic, 15 cruise missiles, 1,714 UAVs intercepted. [Gulf News]
-
Mar 20A-10 Warthogs hunting fast-attack boats in Strait of HormuzCENTCOM: A-10 aircraft 'hunting and killing fast-attack watercraft' in Hormuz. AH-64 Apaches targeting Iran-aligned militias in Iraq. US allies using attack helicopters against one-way drones. [Gulf News]
-
Feb 28Operation Epic Fury begins — Khamenei killedUS-Israel launch surprise strikes on Iran. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei killed. Iran retaliates with missiles and drones across the region.
⚔ Key Conflict Factors
| Strait of Hormuz | CLOSED |
| Oil Supply | -10M bpd |
| Nuclear Sites | TARGETED |
| Ceasefire Talks | CONDITIONS SET |
| Hezbollah Front | ACTIVE |
| Iraq Stability | CROSSFIRE |
| US War Powers | APPROVED |
📋 Iran's Ceasefire Conditions
1. Recognition of Iran's rights
2. Reparations for damages
3. International guarantees against future aggression
4. Gulf states deny US launch operations from their territory
Source: President Pezeshkian via Al Jazeera
📈 Brent Crude Oil Price Trajectory
🎯 Iranian Attacks on UAE (as of Mar 13)
| Weapon Type | Launched | Intercepted | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drones (UAV) | 1,714+ | ~1,400+ | ~93% |
| Ballistic Missiles | 334+ | 260+ | ~92% |
| Cruise Missiles | 15 | 15 | 100% |
UAE receives 48% of all Iranian projectiles. 6 killed, 131 injured.
[Breaking Defense]
✈ Gulf Carriers Flight Activity (% of Pre-War)
Sources: Flightradar24, airline schedule data. 100% = normal pre-conflict daily operations.
Regional Impact Assessment
🇮🇶
Iraq
Status: Critical
Airspace closed since Feb 28 (21 days). AH-64 Apaches targeting Iran-aligned militias. Gas supply from Iran cut. Kataib Hezbollah under continuous strikes.
🇦🇪
UAE
Status: Critical
334 ballistic missiles, 15 cruise missiles, 1,714 UAVs intercepted total. 7 ballistic + 15 drones on Mar 19 alone. Gas facilities shut. Emirates targeting 100% restoration.
🇸🇦
Saudi Arabia
Status: Critical
Ballistic missiles intercepted targeting Riyadh. Eastern oil fields under drone threat. Overland supply routes sustaining aid to Kuwait.
🇶🇦
Qatar
Status: Extreme
Ras Laffan LNG plant still offline after missile strike (~20% global LNG supply). Qatar Airways resumed limited schedule from Mar 18. Revised schedule through Mar 28.
🇮🇱
Israel
Status: High
20+ killed. Cluster munitions hit central Israel, killing 4 including 3 Palestinians near Hebron. 8 missile barrages since midnight. IDF struck 200+ targets in Iran.
🇱🇧
Lebanon
Status: Extreme
1,001 killed (79 women, 118 children, 40 healthcare workers). 2,584 wounded. 1M+ displaced. UN says attacks may constitute war crimes. IDF ground ops continuing.
💰 Economic Impact Factors
| Indicator | Current | Severity |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | ~$108/bbl | CRITICAL |
| WTI Crude | ~$97/bbl | CRITICAL |
| Brent-WTI Spread | Widest in 11 years | HIGH |
| Gulf Oil Output Loss | 15-20M bpd | CRITICAL |
| IEA Emergency Reserves | 172M bbls (US SPR) | RECORD |
| War Funding Request | $200B supplemental | HIGH |
| Flights Cancelled | 46,000+ | CRITICAL |
| Passengers Affected | 5.8M+ | HIGH |
Brent hit $113.71 intraday (Mar 19). Brent-WTI spread widest in 11 years. Pentagon requests $200B supplemental war funding. Qatar LNG plant (~20% global supply) still offline.[Wikipedia]
🌐 Diplomatic Developments
-
Mar 20Hegseth: US preparing 'largest strike package yet' against IranDefense Secretary says new phase of operations imminent. 7,000+ targets already struck. Pentagon requests $200B supplemental war funding. 'We're winning decisively and on our terms.' [Military.com]
-
Mar 20Netanyahu claims Iran's nuclear & missile capacity destroyedIsraeli PM says Iran no longer has capacity to enrich uranium or produce ballistic missiles. IAEA chief Grossi disputes, says nuclear knowledge and some materials 'likely to remain intact.' [Indian Express]
-
Mar 20Trump intelligence official Joe Kent resigned over war disagreementNational Counterterrorism Center director resigned citing disagreement with Iran war. Met with VP Vance before going public. Notable split within Trump administration. [CNN]
-
Mar 19UN warns Israeli strikes on Lebanon may constitute war crimesWith Lebanon death toll passing 1,000, UN and human rights organizations say Israeli attacks could be classified as war crimes. 118 children among dead. [Al Jazeera]
-
Mar 19France mediating potential 3-month Lebanon truceFrance reportedly mediating potential three-month truce between Israel and Lebanon, leading to a non-aggression agreement. Conflict began Mar 2 after Hezbollah fired on Israel. [ILTV]
Latest Headlines (March 20, 2026)
Military.com — Mar 19, 2026
Pentagon: 7,000+ targets struck. 120+ naval vessels sunk. Iran's air defenses 'flattened,' missile production 'overwhelmingly destroyed.' Ballistic attacks on US forces down 90%. Hegseth: 'We're winning decisively.'
Al Jazeera — Mar 19, 2026
Lebanese Health Ministry: 1,001 killed since March 2, including 79 women, 118 children, 40 healthcare workers. 2,584 wounded. Over 1 million displaced.
Gulf News — Mar 19, 2026
UAE intercepted 7 ballistic + 15 drones on Mar 19 alone. Total: 334 ballistic, 15 cruise, 1,714 UAVs. A-10s hunting fast-attack boats in Hormuz. Apaches targeting militias in Iraq.
Fortune — Mar 19, 2026
Oil at $113.71/bbl, up $4.93 from previous day. More than $42 above year-ago levels. Brent-WTI spread widest in 11 years as Gulf attacks intensify.
Indian Express — Mar 19, 2026
Israeli PM claims Iran's nuclear enrichment and missile production capacity destroyed. IAEA chief Grossi disputes, saying nuclear knowledge persists.
Iraq Status & Activities
Comprehensive Iraq Situation Report
Iraqi Casualties
75+ Killed
85+ injured — PMF fighters + civilians. Kataib Hezbollah missile commander killed in Baghdad.
US Military Deaths (Iraq)
6 Killed
KC-135 refueling tanker crash in western Iraq — all 6 crew confirmed dead
Airspace Status
CLOSED
21 consecutive days closed. All flights barred since Feb 28. Iraqi gas supply from Iran cut off.
Militia Attacks Claimed
65+
Islamic Resistance in Iraq — continuous attacks. AH-64 Apaches now deployed against militia positions.
⚔️ Military & Security Situation
| Factor | Status | Details |
|---|---|---|
| US Bases in Iraq | CLOSED | 21st consecutive day closed. Iraq, Syria, Bahrain, Kuwait all barred. Iranian gas to Iraq cut. |
| US Embassy Baghdad | STRUCK x2 | Second attack on Mar 14 — suicide drone and missiles caused fire and damage in the Green Zone compound |
| US Counterstrikes | ONGOING | US struck PMF bases at Jurf al-Sakhr and northern Iraq — at least 9 killed, 10 wounded (biggest strike on Iraqi soil since war started) |
| Pro-Iran Militias (PMF) | ACTIVE | Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed 50+ attacks over Mar 6–7 weekend using missiles & UAVs. Kataib Hezbollah, Asaib Ahl al-Haq deeply embedded in security forces |
| Kurdistan Region | UNSTABLE | Iran targeting Kurdish opposition (PDKI base hit by 7 missiles, PAK base struck with 4 wounded). Debris from intercepted drone hit Rotana Arjaan Hotel in Erbil |
| KC-135 Crash | CONFIRMED | US KC-135 refueling plane crashed in Iraq during operations — circumstances under investigation |
💰 Oil & Economic Impact
| Factor | Status | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Southern Oil Fields | -70% | Output collapsed from 4.3M to ~1.3M bpd. Crude storage at max capacity. Remaining output directed to domestic refineries only |
| Oil Exports | NEAR ZERO | Averaged ~800K bpd briefly, then halted. Only 2 tankers loaded before terminals ceased operations. No new tankers can reach southern ports |
| Port Operations | SUSPENDED | All oil terminal ops suspended after Iranian drone boats struck 2 tankers in Iraqi waters near Basra (1 killed, 38 crew rescued) |
| Rumaila Oil Field | STRUCK | Drone hit Iraq's largest oil field (operated by BP & state agencies). Baker Hughes Energy City complex near Zubair also struck |
| Revenue Impact | SEVERE | Oil funds >90% of Iraq's government revenue. Officials call it "the most serious operational threat in 20+ years" |
| Oil Minister Statement | 1.4M BPD TARGET | Iraq aims to maintain 1.4M bpd output for domestic refining amid disruption (Mar 12 statement) |
🏛️ Political & Government Response
- Government Neutrality — PM al-Sudani has told US Secretary Rubio that Iraq should not be a launchpad for attacks. Iraqi Presidency warned against targeting vital sites and called for dialogue.
- Kurdistan Neutrality — Kurdistan PM Masrour Barzani declared neutrality in Dubai, stating intention to stay out of the US-Iran conflict. Stance expected to hold even under US pressure.
- Green Zone Protests — Thousands of pro-Iran demonstrators surged toward the US Embassy in the Green Zone. Iraqi riot police used tear gas to repel them. Notably, prominent militia commanders were absent.
- PM Succession Dispute — US warned of repercussions if Iran-backed former PM Nouri al-Maliki is reappointed. Senior Tehran-backed leaders in Iraq showing reluctance to sacrifice for Iran.
- Sistani’s Influence — Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani committed to protecting Iraq's hard-earned stability. Religious leadership acting as restraining force on escalation.
🤝 Humanitarian & Civilian Impact
| Issue | Status | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Civilian Casualties | 59 DEAD | At least 59 killed and 78 injured in Iraq. Majority are PMF members but includes civilians caught in crossfire |
| Displacement | GROWING | Security disruptions impacting civilian movement. Existing IDP populations from ISIL conflict face compounded vulnerability |
| Basra Airport | HIT | Drone crashed into closed military section of Basra International Airport. Baghdad Airport also intercepted 2 missiles + 2 drones |
| Humanitarian Access | DISRUPTED | Airspace closure and security instability disrupting humanitarian operations and aid delivery across Iraq |
| Cross-border Mobility | RESTRICTED | UNHCR monitoring cross-border movements and internal displacement. Iran-Iraq border situation tense with 3.2M displaced in Iran |
🛡️ Iran-backed Proxy Forces in Iraq — Current Assessment
Kataib Hezbollah
Most powerful Iranian proxy in Iraq. Base at Jurf al-Sakhr struck by US. Affiliated with ex-PM Nouri al-Maliki's political party. Claimed multiple attacks on US interests.
ACTIVE — STRUCK BY US
Islamic Resistance in Iraq
Umbrella term used by multiple militia groups. Claimed 50+ attacks over one weekend (Mar 6–7) using missiles and UAVs. Many claims lack evidence of substantial damage.
CLAIMING ATTACKS
Proxy Effectiveness
Reuters reports no mass mobilization. Commanders are wary — many have become politicians/businessmen with more to lose. Loss of Syria corridor and targeted killings have weakened capability significantly.
DEGRADED CAPABILITY
📅 Iraq — Key Events Timeline
-
Feb 28War begins — Iraq closes airspaceIraqi Civil Aviation Authority orders total airspace closure as US-Israel strikes on Iran commence. Closure renewed every 24–72 hours since.
-
Mar 1–3IRGC launches 230 drones at US bases including Erbil & BaghdadCamp Taji hit by 3 missiles. Baghdad Airport intercepts 2 missiles + 2 drones. Victoria Base targeted. Iraqi security forces intercept multiple threats.
-
Mar 5Drone targets US base near Baghdad AirportVictoria airbase targeted late at night; drone intercepted before reaching objective. Separate vessel collision damages oil tanker at Khor-Zub port.
-
Mar 6Energy infrastructure attacked around BasraDrones strike Rumaila oil field, Baker Hughes Energy City, and Basra Airport military section. Iran hits Kurdish opposition bases — PDKI base struck by 7 missiles.
-
Mar 6–7Islamic Resistance in Iraq claims 50+ attacksWeekend surge of claimed attacks using missiles and UAVs against targets in Iraq and across the region. Many claims lack evidence of substantial damage.
-
Mar 8Southern oil output collapses 70%Production falls from 4.3M to 1.3M bpd. Storage at capacity. Exports plunge to ~800K bpd with only 2 tankers loading before terminals halt.
-
Mar 12Tankers attacked in Iraqi waters; port ops suspendedIranian drone boats strike 2 fuel tankers near Basra — 1 killed, 38 crew rescued. Iraq suspends all oil terminal operations. Oil minister targets 1.4M bpd for domestic use.
-
Mar 12US strikes PMF bases — biggest attack on Iraqi soilAirstrikes on two PMF bases kill at least 9 and wound 10. One base affiliated with ex-PM Maliki's party. US has not officially commented.
-
Mar 13Airspace closure extended 72 more hoursIraqi Civil Aviation Authority extends total closure from Mar 14 noon to Mar 17 noon. All arriving, departing, and overflying aircraft barred.
-
Mar 14US Embassy in Baghdad struck for second timeSuicide drone and missiles cause fire and damage within the heavily fortified Green Zone compound. Second attack since war began on Feb 28.
Aviation & Airspace Status
Iraq Airspace
CLOSED
21 consecutive days closed. Iraq, Syria, Bahrain, Kuwait airspace all remain closed.
Emirates (EK)
REBUILDING
Targeting 100% network restoration in coming days. Operating expanded schedule from DXB.
Qatar Airways (QR)
REBUILDING
Resumed more significant schedule from Mar 18. Transit passengers accepted. Revised limited schedule through Mar 28.
Flights Cancelled
46,000+
5.8M+ passengers affected. Worst aviation disruption since COVID-19.
🇮🇶 Iraq Airspace Lockdown Details
| Parameter | Status |
|---|---|
| Current Status | FULLY CLOSED |
| Authority | Iraqi Civil Aviation Authority (ICAA) |
| Latest Extension | 21 consecutive days closed since Feb 28. All arriving, departing, and overflying aircraft barred. Iraq, Syria, Bahrain, Kuwait airspace remain closed. |
| Scope | All incoming, outgoing, and transit flights. No exceptions. |
| Reason | "Temporary precautionary measure based on continued security assessment and evolving regional developments" |
| Baghdad Airport (BGW) | CLOSED |
| Erbil Airport (EBL) | CLOSED |
| Basra Airport (BSR) | CLOSED |
| Review Status | Under continuous review. Airlines and authorities to be notified of any updates. |
| US Embassy Advisory | US Embassy Baghdad issued security alert Mar 9 — neighboring airspace may also be closed. |
🌎 Middle East Airspace Status Map
| Airspace | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 🇮🇷 Iran | CLOSED | Active combat zone |
| 🇮🇶 Iraq | CLOSED | 21st consecutive day closed. Iraq, Syria, Bahrain, Kuwait all barred. Iranian gas to Iraq cut. |
| 🇮🇱 Israel | CLOSED | Active combat zone |
| 🇱🇧 Lebanon | CLOSED | Hezbollah-Israel front active |
| 🇶🇦 Qatar | RESTRICTED | Limited corridors authorized |
| 🇦🇪 UAE | RESTRICTED | Partially open, active air defense |
| 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | PARTIAL | Limited ops; Red Sea routes active |
| 🇯🇴 Jordan | RESTRICTED | Limited operations |
| 🇲🇳 Oman | OPEN | Alt hub; Muscat routing available |
Central corridor (Iran-Iraq-Gulf) effectively closed. Traffic rerouted north via Caucasus/Afghanistan or south via Egypt/Oman.
[BBC]
✈ Emirates (EK) — Flight Status
REDUCED OPERATIONS
through March 28, 2026
| Detail | Status |
|---|---|
| Dubai Hub (DXB) | OPEN — REDUCED |
| Destinations Served | 110+ (expanding daily) |
| Full Schedule | NOT RESUMED |
| Reduced Until | March 28, 2026 (confirmed Mar 13) |
| Transit Passengers | Only accepted if connecting flight is confirmed |
| City Check-in | ALL CLOSED |
| Rebooking Policy | Feb 28 – Mar 31 bookings: rebook to same destination by Apr 30 free of charge |
| Refund Policy | Cancelled flights: full refund, no fees (Feb 28 – Mar 31 period) |
| Website Updated | Last update: Mar 9 (website lagging behind operations) |
⚠ Important for Passengers
Do NOT proceed to airport unless contacted by Emirates. Check emirat.es/flightstatus within 1 hour of departure. Beware of fraudulent social media accounts offering fake refunds.
✈ Qatar Airways (QR) — Flight Status
SCHEDULED OPS SUSPENDED
limited corridor flights only
| Detail | Status |
|---|---|
| Doha Hub (DOH) | COMMERCIAL OPS SUSPENDED |
| Qatar Airspace | RESTRICTED CORRIDORS ONLY |
| Today's Departures (Mar 14) | RUH, MCT, PVG, MNL, JNB, DFW, YYZ, CMB, CAI, ISB, BOM, LHR, FCO, MAD, FRA |
| Today's Arrivals (Mar 14) | PER, ICN, DAC, JED, KUL, BKK, COK, ALG, MIA, IST, CAI, JNB, LHR, MAD, FRA |
| Flight Type | Evacuation/repatriation only — not regular commercial service |
| Flights Cancelled (total) | 2,000+ at Hamad International alone since Feb 28 |
| Rebooking Policy | Feb 28 – Mar 28 bookings: 2 free date changes (+14 days) or full refund |
| Suspended Routes | Iraq, Iran, Lebanon — fully suspended |
✈ Mar 14 Limited Flight Schedule
Departing DOH: Riyadh, Muscat, Shanghai, Manila, Johannesburg, Dallas, Toronto, Colombo, Cairo, Islamabad, Mumbai, London, Rome, Madrid, Frankfurt. Each flight requires regulatory approval and may change.
Sources: Qatar Airways Official, Al Jazeera
🏠 Other Major Airlines — Status Overview (Mar 14)
| Airline | Status | Suspension Period | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Etihad Airways | REDUCED | Schedule through Mar 16 | Free rebooking for tickets issued before Feb 28 until May 15 |
| flydubai | REDUCED | Reduced network-wide | Feb 28–Mar 31 bookings: free rebooking within 30 days |
| British Airways | SUSPENDED | Through end of March | DXB, DOH, BAH, AMM, TLV all cancelled. Ltd repatriation via Muscat. |
| Lufthansa Group | SUSPENDED | Through Mar 15 (DXB); Tehran until Apr 30 | Includes LH, OS, LX, SN. Free refund for Mar 16–26 tickets. |
| Air Canada | SUSPENDED | Toronto-Dubai until May 1 | Adding Delhi capacity as alternative |
| KLM | SUSPENDED | Dubai until Mar 28 | Stranded 787 evacuated from Dubai on Mar 12 |
| Finnair | SUSPENDED | Dubai until Mar 29; DOH until Mar 29 | Avoiding Iraq, Iran, Syria, Israel airspace |
| Cathay Pacific | SUSPENDED | Dubai through end of March | No resumption date announced |
| Singapore Airlines | PENDING | Cancelled through Mar 14 | Suspension expiring today; check for updates |
| Turkish Airlines | PENDING | Iraq/Syria/Lebanon until Mar 13 | Suspension expired; check for confirmed resumption |
| Oman Air | REDUCED | Select routes until Mar 22 | Muscat functioning as alternative hub |
| Air India / Express | OPERATING | 80 flights today | Scheduled + ad-hoc to DXB, AUH, MCT, JED |
| IndiGo | DISRUPTED | 97 flights cancelled today | Implementing fuel surcharge from Mar 14 |
📋 Aviation Disruption Summary
Flight Rerouting
Central corridor through Iran, Iraq, and Gulf is effectively closed. All traffic redirected north via Caucasus/Afghanistan or south via Egypt/Saudi/Oman. Both routes are significantly longer and congested.
Stranded Passengers
4 million+ passengers affected. Emirates, Qatar Airways, Etihad carry a combined 90,000 transit passengers/day. Repatriation flights from multiple governments ongoing.
Air Cargo Impact
Air cargo traffic dropped 20%. Flight prices between Asia and Europe have surged. Fuel surcharges being implemented by carriers like IndiGo from March 14.