Conflict Duration
Day 19
Since Feb 28, 2026 — "Operation Epic Fury"
Brent Crude Oil
$104/bbl
▲ 49% since conflict start ($70 → $104)
Strait of Hormuz
BLOCKADE
Iran allowing only allied vessels; ~12 Iran-linked ships passed in 24hrs
Global Oil Disruption
15-20M bpd
Standard Chartered raises Brent forecast. ME loadings remain near-halt.
Iranian Civilian Casualties
1,200+
Health Ministry; HRANA says 1,825+. 4,400+ military. 10,000+ injured.
IEA Emergency Release
172M bbls
Record US SPR release. US gasoline $3.72/gal. IEA says more reserves available.
Ships Attacked/Damaged
20+
100+ Iranian naval vessels destroyed per CENTCOM. Mines cleared.
US Minelayer Ships Hit
100+
CENTCOM: destroyed 100+ Iranian naval vessels via air, land & sea
🕑 Conflict Timeline — Key Events
-
Mar 18EU foreign ministers reject Hormuz coalition -- 'no appetite'EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said EU ministers showed 'no appetite' to extend maritime mission to Hormuz. Germany: 'This is not our war.' Greece, Italy also refuse. [Al Jazeera]
-
Mar 18Brent crude surges past $104/bbl on Iranian infrastructure strikesOil rises further as Iran targets energy infrastructure in the Gulf. Standard Chartered raises Brent crude forecast. JP Morgan notes Hormuz passage now conditional on political ties with Iran. [Yahoo Finance]
-
Mar 18CENTCOM: 200+ US troops wounded across 7 nations; 13 killedUS military casualties rising with many late-reported TBIs. At least 13 killed including 6 in Kuwait drone strike and 6 in KC-135 crash in Iraq. Trump backing away from Hormuz pledge. [Axios]
-
Mar 17USS Abraham Lincoln executing back-to-back strike waves near IranCENTCOM releases footage of continuous flight operations from USS Lincoln. Day and night strike waves during Operation Epic Fury. Iran's defense industrial base being systematically dismantled.
-
Mar 17Most NATO members reject US-led Hormuz coalitionGermany, Italy, Japan refuse to send naval vessels. Trump rates Macron's willingness at '8 out of 10.' UK circulating proposal but no commitments. European diplomat: 'It's chaotic.' [Axios]
-
Mar 17Iran FM denies any talks with US; vows not to submitIran's foreign minister appeared on Face the Nation refuting Trump's claims Tehran is ready for a deal. Iran at UN Human Rights Council vows not to submit to 'lawless aggression.'
-
Mar 16Fatal missile strike in Abu Dhabi; UAE intercepts massive barrageIranian missile strike caused fuel tank fire in Abu Dhabi. UAE intercepted 304 ballistic missiles, 15 cruise missiles, 1,627 drones total since war began.
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Mar 15US strikes 90+ targets on Kharg IslandCENTCOM announces large-scale precision strike destroying mine facilities, storage bunkers, military installations. Oil infrastructure spared.
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Feb 28Operation Epic Fury begins -- Khamenei killedUS-Israel launch surprise strikes on Iran. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei killed. Iran retaliates with missiles and drones across the region.
⚔ Key Conflict Factors
| Strait of Hormuz | CLOSED |
| Oil Supply | -10M bpd |
| Nuclear Sites | TARGETED |
| Ceasefire Talks | CONDITIONS SET |
| Hezbollah Front | ACTIVE |
| Iraq Stability | CROSSFIRE |
| US War Powers | APPROVED |
📋 Iran's Ceasefire Conditions
1. Recognition of Iran's rights
2. Reparations for damages
3. International guarantees against future aggression
4. Gulf states deny US launch operations from their territory
Source: President Pezeshkian via Al Jazeera
📈 Brent Crude Oil Price Trajectory
🎯 Iranian Attacks on UAE (as of Mar 13)
| Weapon Type | Launched | Intercepted | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drones (UAV) | 1,627+ | ~1,400+ | ~93% |
| Ballistic Missiles | 304+ | 260+ | ~92% |
| Cruise Missiles | 15 | 15 | 100% |
UAE receives 48% of all Iranian projectiles. 6 killed, 131 injured.
[Breaking Defense]
✈ Gulf Carriers Flight Activity (% of Pre-War)
Sources: Flightradar24, airline schedule data. 100% = normal pre-conflict daily operations.
Regional Impact Assessment
🇮🇶
Iraq
Status: Critical
Airspace closure extended repeatedly (9th extension expected). KC-135 crash killed 6. US Embassy security alert. Baghdad embassy struck by drones. Militia attacks ongoing.
🇦🇪
UAE
Status: Critical
1,627 drones, 304 ballistic missiles, 15 cruise missiles intercepted. Fatal Abu Dhabi strike. Emirates operating limited schedule, targeting 100% by Mar 29.
🇸🇦
Saudi Arabia
Status: High
Intercepting drones targeting eastern oil fields. Ramping up Red Sea oil shipments as Hormuz alternatives.
🇶🇦
Qatar
Status: High
14 Iranian ballistic missiles + drones targeted Qatar. Al Udeid Air Base hit by missiles. QR limited flights through Mar 18.
🇮🇱
Israel
Status: High
14 killed. Expanding Lebanon ground campaign. 15,000+ targets struck alongside US. Running low on interceptors.
🇱🇧
Lebanon
Status: Extreme
773 killed, 1,933 injured, 830,000 displaced. Hezbollah claiming 43 attacks/day. Israeli evacuation orders affect 14% of Lebanon.
💰 Economic Impact Factors
| Indicator | Current | Severity |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | ~$104/bbl | CRITICAL |
| WTI Crude | ~$101/bbl | CRITICAL |
| Gulf Oil Output Loss | 15-20M bpd | CRITICAL |
| IEA Emergency Reserves | 172M bbls (US SPR) | RECORD |
| Shipping Through Hormuz | ~12 ships/day (Iran-allied) | CRITICAL |
| Flights Cancelled | 42,000+ | CRITICAL |
| Passengers Affected | 5M+ | HIGH |
| US War Cost (est.) | Billions spent | HIGH |
Standard Chartered raises Brent forecast. JP Morgan: Hormuz passage conditional on Iran ties. IEA 172M barrel reserve release from US SPR. US gasoline $3.72/gal.[Wikipedia]
🌐 Diplomatic Developments
-
Mar 18EU unanimously rejects Hormuz military involvementEU foreign policy chief Kallas: 'no appetite.' Germany: 'not our war.' Greece, Italy confirm non-participation. France proposes extending Aspides mission from Red Sea. [Al Jazeera]
-
Mar 17Most NATO members reject US-led Hormuz coalitionGermany, Italy, Japan refuse naval vessels. UK circulating proposal. Trump rates Macron '8/10' willing. European diplomat: 'It's chaotic. Many are unclear.' [Axios]
-
Mar 17Iran FM denies talks; Trump says 'not ready' for dealIran FM on Face the Nation: 'We never asked for a ceasefire.' Trump says he wants better terms. No talks confirmed. Both sides digging in.
-
Mar 17China dismisses Hormuz escort request as 'spreading risk'China's Global Times calls it Trump's attempt to 'spread the risk of a war Washington started and cannot finish.' No Chinese naval participation expected.
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Mar 16Trump announces Hormuz naval coalition frameworkWhite House unveils coalition framework. UK, France, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada, Gulf states, Jordan approached. Most decline.
Latest Headlines (March 18, 2026)
AXIOS -- Mar 17, 2026
Germany, Italy, Japan refuse to send naval vessels. EU foreign policy chief Kallas: 'no appetite' to join. UK circulating coalition proposal but no commitments secured.
AL JAZEERA -- Mar 17, 2026
Germany's Wadephul: 'This is not our war.' Greece, Italy confirm non-participation. France proposes extending EU Aspides naval mission from Red Sea. UK working on collective plan.
NPR -- Mar 17, 2026
Trump spoke with UK PM Starmer and French President Macron. Characterized France as '8 out of 10' willing. Trump backing away from personal pledge to secure Strait.
BLOOMBERG -- Mar 17, 2026
Brent crude at $104.98 high on Mar 17. Standard Chartered raises forecast. JP Morgan: Hormuz passage now conditional on political affiliation with Iran. Iran allowing only allied vessels through.
SKY NEWS -- Mar 17, 2026
Military analyst examines why Iran conflict puts Trump at odds with NATO allies. Iran proving it can still target infrastructure. Straits of Hormuz essentially closed except for Iranian allies.
Iraq Status & Activities
Comprehensive Iraq Situation Report
Iraqi Casualties
63+ Killed
80+ injured -- PMF fighters + civilians; 4 killed near Syria border airstrike
US Military Deaths (Iraq)
6 Killed
KC-135 refueling tanker crash in western Iraq -- all 6 crew confirmed dead
Airspace Status
CLOSED
9th consecutive extension expected. All flights barred since Feb 28.
Militia Attacks Claimed
50+
Islamic Resistance in Iraq -- continuous attacks on US/European forces
⚔️ Military & Security Situation
| Factor | Status | Details |
|---|---|---|
| US Bases in Iraq | CLOSED | 9th consecutive closure extension; all flights barred since Feb 28 |
| US Embassy Baghdad | STRUCK x2 | Second attack on Mar 14 — suicide drone and missiles caused fire and damage in the Green Zone compound |
| US Counterstrikes | ONGOING | US struck PMF bases at Jurf al-Sakhr and northern Iraq — at least 9 killed, 10 wounded (biggest strike on Iraqi soil since war started) |
| Pro-Iran Militias (PMF) | ACTIVE | Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed 50+ attacks over Mar 6–7 weekend using missiles & UAVs. Kataib Hezbollah, Asaib Ahl al-Haq deeply embedded in security forces |
| Kurdistan Region | UNSTABLE | Iran targeting Kurdish opposition (PDKI base hit by 7 missiles, PAK base struck with 4 wounded). Debris from intercepted drone hit Rotana Arjaan Hotel in Erbil |
| KC-135 Crash | CONFIRMED | US KC-135 refueling plane crashed in Iraq during operations — circumstances under investigation |
💰 Oil & Economic Impact
| Factor | Status | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Southern Oil Fields | -70% | Output collapsed from 4.3M to ~1.3M bpd. Crude storage at max capacity. Remaining output directed to domestic refineries only |
| Oil Exports | NEAR ZERO | Averaged ~800K bpd briefly, then halted. Only 2 tankers loaded before terminals ceased operations. No new tankers can reach southern ports |
| Port Operations | SUSPENDED | All oil terminal ops suspended after Iranian drone boats struck 2 tankers in Iraqi waters near Basra (1 killed, 38 crew rescued) |
| Rumaila Oil Field | STRUCK | Drone hit Iraq's largest oil field (operated by BP & state agencies). Baker Hughes Energy City complex near Zubair also struck |
| Revenue Impact | SEVERE | Oil funds >90% of Iraq's government revenue. Officials call it "the most serious operational threat in 20+ years" |
| Oil Minister Statement | 1.4M BPD TARGET | Iraq aims to maintain 1.4M bpd output for domestic refining amid disruption (Mar 12 statement) |
🏛️ Political & Government Response
- Government Neutrality — PM al-Sudani has told US Secretary Rubio that Iraq should not be a launchpad for attacks. Iraqi Presidency warned against targeting vital sites and called for dialogue.
- Kurdistan Neutrality — Kurdistan PM Masrour Barzani declared neutrality in Dubai, stating intention to stay out of the US-Iran conflict. Stance expected to hold even under US pressure.
- Green Zone Protests — Thousands of pro-Iran demonstrators surged toward the US Embassy in the Green Zone. Iraqi riot police used tear gas to repel them. Notably, prominent militia commanders were absent.
- PM Succession Dispute — US warned of repercussions if Iran-backed former PM Nouri al-Maliki is reappointed. Senior Tehran-backed leaders in Iraq showing reluctance to sacrifice for Iran.
- Sistani’s Influence — Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani committed to protecting Iraq's hard-earned stability. Religious leadership acting as restraining force on escalation.
🤝 Humanitarian & Civilian Impact
| Issue | Status | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Civilian Casualties | 59 DEAD | At least 59 killed and 78 injured in Iraq. Majority are PMF members but includes civilians caught in crossfire |
| Displacement | GROWING | Security disruptions impacting civilian movement. Existing IDP populations from ISIL conflict face compounded vulnerability |
| Basra Airport | HIT | Drone crashed into closed military section of Basra International Airport. Baghdad Airport also intercepted 2 missiles + 2 drones |
| Humanitarian Access | DISRUPTED | Airspace closure and security instability disrupting humanitarian operations and aid delivery across Iraq |
| Cross-border Mobility | RESTRICTED | UNHCR monitoring cross-border movements and internal displacement. Iran-Iraq border situation tense with 3.2M displaced in Iran |
🛡️ Iran-backed Proxy Forces in Iraq — Current Assessment
Kataib Hezbollah
Most powerful Iranian proxy in Iraq. Base at Jurf al-Sakhr struck by US. Affiliated with ex-PM Nouri al-Maliki's political party. Claimed multiple attacks on US interests.
ACTIVE — STRUCK BY US
Islamic Resistance in Iraq
Umbrella term used by multiple militia groups. Claimed 50+ attacks over one weekend (Mar 6–7) using missiles and UAVs. Many claims lack evidence of substantial damage.
CLAIMING ATTACKS
Proxy Effectiveness
Reuters reports no mass mobilization. Commanders are wary — many have become politicians/businessmen with more to lose. Loss of Syria corridor and targeted killings have weakened capability significantly.
DEGRADED CAPABILITY
📅 Iraq — Key Events Timeline
-
Feb 28War begins — Iraq closes airspaceIraqi Civil Aviation Authority orders total airspace closure as US-Israel strikes on Iran commence. Closure renewed every 24–72 hours since.
-
Mar 1–3IRGC launches 230 drones at US bases including Erbil & BaghdadCamp Taji hit by 3 missiles. Baghdad Airport intercepts 2 missiles + 2 drones. Victoria Base targeted. Iraqi security forces intercept multiple threats.
-
Mar 5Drone targets US base near Baghdad AirportVictoria airbase targeted late at night; drone intercepted before reaching objective. Separate vessel collision damages oil tanker at Khor-Zub port.
-
Mar 6Energy infrastructure attacked around BasraDrones strike Rumaila oil field, Baker Hughes Energy City, and Basra Airport military section. Iran hits Kurdish opposition bases — PDKI base struck by 7 missiles.
-
Mar 6–7Islamic Resistance in Iraq claims 50+ attacksWeekend surge of claimed attacks using missiles and UAVs against targets in Iraq and across the region. Many claims lack evidence of substantial damage.
-
Mar 8Southern oil output collapses 70%Production falls from 4.3M to 1.3M bpd. Storage at capacity. Exports plunge to ~800K bpd with only 2 tankers loading before terminals halt.
-
Mar 12Tankers attacked in Iraqi waters; port ops suspendedIranian drone boats strike 2 fuel tankers near Basra — 1 killed, 38 crew rescued. Iraq suspends all oil terminal operations. Oil minister targets 1.4M bpd for domestic use.
-
Mar 12US strikes PMF bases — biggest attack on Iraqi soilAirstrikes on two PMF bases kill at least 9 and wound 10. One base affiliated with ex-PM Maliki's party. US has not officially commented.
-
Mar 13Airspace closure extended 72 more hoursIraqi Civil Aviation Authority extends total closure from Mar 14 noon to Mar 17 noon. All arriving, departing, and overflying aircraft barred.
-
Mar 14US Embassy in Baghdad struck for second timeSuicide drone and missiles cause fire and damage within the heavily fortified Green Zone compound. Second attack since war began on Feb 28.
Aviation & Airspace Status
Iraq Airspace
CLOSED
9th consecutive extension expected. All civilian flights barred since Feb 28.
Emirates (EK)
LIMITED OPS
Operating limited schedule. Targeting 100% ops by Mar 29. ~25-37% of normal DXB capacity.
Qatar Airways (QR)
LIMITED
Limited flights through Mar 18. Operating select routes with regulatory approval.
Flights Cancelled
42,000+
5M+ passengers affected. Worst disruption since COVID-19.
🇮🇶 Iraq Airspace Lockdown Details
| Parameter | Status |
|---|---|
| Current Status | FULLY CLOSED |
| Authority | Iraqi Civil Aviation Authority (ICAA) |
| Latest Extension | 9th extension expected: 72 hrs from Mar 17 noon. All arriving, departing, and overflying aircraft barred. Continuous review. |
| Scope | All incoming, outgoing, and transit flights. No exceptions. |
| Reason | "Temporary precautionary measure based on continued security assessment and evolving regional developments" |
| Baghdad Airport (BGW) | CLOSED |
| Erbil Airport (EBL) | CLOSED |
| Basra Airport (BSR) | CLOSED |
| Review Status | Under continuous review. Airlines and authorities to be notified of any updates. |
| US Embassy Advisory | US Embassy Baghdad issued security alert Mar 9 — neighboring airspace may also be closed. |
🌎 Middle East Airspace Status Map
| Airspace | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 🇮🇷 Iran | CLOSED | Active combat zone |
| 🇮🇶 Iraq | CLOSED | 9th consecutive closure extension; all flights barred since Feb 28 |
| 🇮🇱 Israel | CLOSED | Active combat zone |
| 🇱🇧 Lebanon | CLOSED | Hezbollah-Israel front active |
| 🇶🇦 Qatar | RESTRICTED | Limited corridors authorized |
| 🇦🇪 UAE | RESTRICTED | Partially open, active air defense |
| 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | PARTIAL | Limited ops; Red Sea routes active |
| 🇯🇴 Jordan | RESTRICTED | Limited operations |
| 🇲🇳 Oman | OPEN | Alt hub; Muscat routing available |
Central corridor (Iran-Iraq-Gulf) effectively closed. Traffic rerouted north via Caucasus/Afghanistan or south via Egypt/Oman.
[BBC]
✈ Emirates (EK) — Flight Status
REDUCED OPERATIONS
through March 28, 2026
| Detail | Status |
|---|---|
| Dubai Hub (DXB) | OPEN — REDUCED |
| Destinations Served | 110+ (expanding daily) |
| Full Schedule | NOT RESUMED |
| Reduced Until | March 28, 2026 (confirmed Mar 13) |
| Transit Passengers | Only accepted if connecting flight is confirmed |
| City Check-in | ALL CLOSED |
| Rebooking Policy | Feb 28 – Mar 31 bookings: rebook to same destination by Apr 30 free of charge |
| Refund Policy | Cancelled flights: full refund, no fees (Feb 28 – Mar 31 period) |
| Website Updated | Last update: Mar 9 (website lagging behind operations) |
⚠ Important for Passengers
Do NOT proceed to airport unless contacted by Emirates. Check emirat.es/flightstatus within 1 hour of departure. Beware of fraudulent social media accounts offering fake refunds.
✈ Qatar Airways (QR) — Flight Status
SCHEDULED OPS SUSPENDED
limited corridor flights only
| Detail | Status |
|---|---|
| Doha Hub (DOH) | COMMERCIAL OPS SUSPENDED |
| Qatar Airspace | RESTRICTED CORRIDORS ONLY |
| Today's Departures (Mar 14) | RUH, MCT, PVG, MNL, JNB, DFW, YYZ, CMB, CAI, ISB, BOM, LHR, FCO, MAD, FRA |
| Today's Arrivals (Mar 14) | PER, ICN, DAC, JED, KUL, BKK, COK, ALG, MIA, IST, CAI, JNB, LHR, MAD, FRA |
| Flight Type | Evacuation/repatriation only — not regular commercial service |
| Flights Cancelled (total) | 2,000+ at Hamad International alone since Feb 28 |
| Rebooking Policy | Feb 28 – Mar 28 bookings: 2 free date changes (+14 days) or full refund |
| Suspended Routes | Iraq, Iran, Lebanon — fully suspended |
✈ Mar 14 Limited Flight Schedule
Departing DOH: Riyadh, Muscat, Shanghai, Manila, Johannesburg, Dallas, Toronto, Colombo, Cairo, Islamabad, Mumbai, London, Rome, Madrid, Frankfurt. Each flight requires regulatory approval and may change.
Sources: Qatar Airways Official, Al Jazeera
🏠 Other Major Airlines — Status Overview (Mar 14)
| Airline | Status | Suspension Period | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Etihad Airways | REDUCED | Schedule through Mar 16 | Free rebooking for tickets issued before Feb 28 until May 15 |
| flydubai | REDUCED | Reduced network-wide | Feb 28–Mar 31 bookings: free rebooking within 30 days |
| British Airways | SUSPENDED | Through end of March | DXB, DOH, BAH, AMM, TLV all cancelled. Ltd repatriation via Muscat. |
| Lufthansa Group | SUSPENDED | Through Mar 15 (DXB); Tehran until Apr 30 | Includes LH, OS, LX, SN. Free refund for Mar 16–26 tickets. |
| Air Canada | SUSPENDED | Toronto-Dubai until May 1 | Adding Delhi capacity as alternative |
| KLM | SUSPENDED | Dubai until Mar 28 | Stranded 787 evacuated from Dubai on Mar 12 |
| Finnair | SUSPENDED | Dubai until Mar 29; DOH until Mar 29 | Avoiding Iraq, Iran, Syria, Israel airspace |
| Cathay Pacific | SUSPENDED | Dubai through end of March | No resumption date announced |
| Singapore Airlines | PENDING | Cancelled through Mar 14 | Suspension expiring today; check for updates |
| Turkish Airlines | PENDING | Iraq/Syria/Lebanon until Mar 13 | Suspension expired; check for confirmed resumption |
| Oman Air | REDUCED | Select routes until Mar 22 | Muscat functioning as alternative hub |
| Air India / Express | OPERATING | 80 flights today | Scheduled + ad-hoc to DXB, AUH, MCT, JED |
| IndiGo | DISRUPTED | 97 flights cancelled today | Implementing fuel surcharge from Mar 14 |
📋 Aviation Disruption Summary
Flight Rerouting
Central corridor through Iran, Iraq, and Gulf is effectively closed. All traffic redirected north via Caucasus/Afghanistan or south via Egypt/Saudi/Oman. Both routes are significantly longer and congested.
Stranded Passengers
4 million+ passengers affected. Emirates, Qatar Airways, Etihad carry a combined 90,000 transit passengers/day. Repatriation flights from multiple governments ongoing.
Air Cargo Impact
Air cargo traffic dropped 20%. Flight prices between Asia and Europe have surged. Fuel surcharges being implemented by carriers like IndiGo from March 14.