Conflict Duration
Day 23
Since Feb 28, 2026 — "Operation Epic Fury"
Brent Crude Oil
$112/bbl
▲ 60% since conflict start ($70 → $112). Saudi warns $180 possible. Asia rationing electricity.
Strait of Hormuz
BLOCKADE
G7 vows to protect shipping. US considering Kharg Island seizure. Iran's Hormuz threat 'degraded' -- CENTCOM.
Global Oil Disruption
15-20M bpd
Kuwait refinery hit 2 consecutive days. Qatar LNG offline. Asia implementing electricity rationing.
Iranian Civilian Casualties
1,444+
1,100+ military killed. 17,000+ injured. 1,000+ children injured. 3.2M displaced.
IEA Emergency Release
172M bbls
Record US SPR release. Jones Act waived. Russian sanctions eased. Gas prices in US up 30%.
Ships Attacked/Damaged
20+
130+ Iranian vessels destroyed -- largest navy elimination since WWII (CENTCOM).
US Minelayer Ships Hit
130+
CENTCOM: 8,000+ targets struck. 8,000+ combat flights. Total air superiority established.
🕑 Conflict Timeline — Key Events
-
Mar 22Iran fires 2 ICBMs at Diego Garcia -- shows Europe within missile rangeIran launched 2 intermediate-range ballistic missiles at joint US-UK base in Diego Garcia (4,000 km). One intercepted by SM-3, one failed midflight. Distance puts Central European capitals within Iranian range. [Bloomberg]
-
Mar 22US deploys 2,200+ Marines to Middle East -- ground operation discussed2nd Marine Expeditionary Unit (2,200 Marines, 3 warships) deploying to region. Options include seizing Iran's Kharg Island (90% of oil exports) or coastal raids to force Hormuz reopening. Trump hasn't ruled out boots on the ground. [Military.com]
-
Mar 22G7 condemns Iran's attacks on energy supplies, vows to protect HormuzG7 foreign ministers issued joint statement condemning Iran's 'reckless attacks against civilians and energy infrastructure.' Vowed necessary measures to support global energy supplies and safeguard maritime routes. [Al-Monitor/Reuters]
-
Mar 22CENTCOM: 8,000+ targets struck, 130+ vessels destroyed -- largest navy elimination since WWIIAdmiral Cooper's 4th update: Longest field artillery strike in US Army history. 8,000+ combat flights. 130+ Iranian vessels destroyed. Total air superiority. Iran's navy not sailing, fighters not flying. [CENTCOM Video]
-
Mar 22F-35 hit by Iranian fire -- first US aircraft struck over IranAn F-35 stealth fighter conducted emergency landing after being struck by Iranian fire during combat mission over Iran. First time a US military aircraft has been hit. Plane landed safely. [ABC News]
-
Mar 22Iranian drones hit Kuwait's largest refinery for 2nd day -- partial shutdownDrones struck Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery (730,000 bpd capacity) for 2nd consecutive day. Fires erupted, units taken offline. Kuwait air defenses engaging incoming missiles and drones. [Al Jazeera]
-
Mar 22Trump says US 'very close' to meeting objectives, considering wind-downTrump claims administration 'very close to meeting objectives' and considering winding down military efforts. Previously said war would end within 4-week timetable. Strait 'will open itself at a certain point.' [ABC News]
-
Mar 22US casualties: 13 killed, 232 injured (most traumatic brain injuries)At least 232 US troops injured, 10 seriously, majority suffering traumatic brain injuries. 13 US service members killed. Iran: 1,444 dead (1,300+ civilian, 1,100+ military). [Al Jazeera]
-
Feb 28Operation Epic Fury begins -- Khamenei killedUS-Israel launch surprise strikes on Iran. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei killed. Iran retaliates with missiles and drones across the region.
⚔ Key Conflict Factors
| Strait of Hormuz | CLOSED |
| Oil Supply | -10M bpd |
| Nuclear Sites | TARGETED |
| Ceasefire Talks | CONDITIONS SET |
| Hezbollah Front | ACTIVE |
| Iraq Stability | CROSSFIRE |
| US War Powers | APPROVED |
📋 Iran's Ceasefire Conditions
1. Recognition of Iran's rights
2. Reparations for damages
3. International guarantees against future aggression
4. Gulf states deny US launch operations from their territory
Source: President Pezeshkian via Al Jazeera
📈 Brent Crude Oil Price Trajectory
🎯 Iranian Attacks on UAE (as of Mar 13)
| Weapon Type | Launched | Intercepted | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drones (UAV) | 1,750+ | ~1,400+ | ~93% |
| Ballistic Missiles | 340+ | 260+ | ~92% |
| Cruise Missiles | 15 | 15 | 100% |
UAE receives 48% of all Iranian projectiles. 6 killed, 131 injured.
[Breaking Defense]
✈ Gulf Carriers Flight Activity (% of Pre-War)
Sources: Flightradar24, airline schedule data. 100% = normal pre-conflict daily operations.
Regional Impact Assessment
🇮🇶
Iraq
Status: Critical
NATO Mission Iraq relocated all personnel to Europe. Airspace closed 23 consecutive days. AH-64 Apaches targeting militias. Gas supply from Iran cut off.
🇦🇪
UAE
Status: Critical
334+ ballistic, 15 cruise missiles, 1,714+ UAVs intercepted. IRGC claimed attacks on Al Dhafra air base. Emirates rebuilding toward 100% by Mar 29.
🇸🇦
Saudi Arabia
Status: Critical
Warns oil could hit $180/bbl. Intercepting drones over eastern oil fields. Crown Prince vowed military force against further Iranian incursions.
🇶🇦
Qatar
Status: Extreme
Ras Laffan LNG plant still offline (~20% global supply). Qatar Airways limited schedule through Mar 28. Energy minister calls attack 'an attack on all of us.'
🇮🇱
Israel
Status: High
20+ killed. Hezbollah 39 ops/day. Cluster munitions hitting central Israel. IDF struck 200+ targets in Iran. Ground ops in southern Lebanon ongoing.
🇱🇧
Lebanon
Status: Extreme
1,001+ killed (118 children). 2,584 wounded. ~1M displaced (19% of population). France mediating 3-month truce. IDF ground operations continuing.
💰 Economic Impact Factors
| Indicator | Current | Severity |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | ~$112/bbl | CRITICAL |
| Dubai Crude | $166/bbl (historic) | RECORD |
| WTI Crude | ~$98/bbl | CRITICAL |
| Gulf Oil Output Loss | 15-20M bpd | CRITICAL |
| US Gas Prices | Up 30% | SURGING |
| IEA Emergency Reserves | 172M bbls (US SPR) | RECORD |
| Flights Cancelled | 50,000+ | CRITICAL |
| Passengers Affected | 6.2M+ | HIGH |
Brent $112/bbl. Saudi warns $180 possible. US gas prices up 30% since war start. Asia implementing electricity rationing. Kuwait refinery partially shut. G7 vows energy supply protection.[Wikipedia]
🌐 Diplomatic Developments
-
Mar 22G7 condemns Iran's attacks on energy, vows to protect HormuzG7 foreign ministers (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US + EU) issued joint statement condemning Iran's 'reckless attacks against civilians and energy infrastructure.' Ready to take 'necessary measures.' [Al-Monitor/Reuters]
-
Mar 22Trump says US 'very close' to meeting objectives, considering wind-downTrump claims administration considering winding down operations. Previously set 4-week timetable. Says Strait of Hormuz 'will open itself at a certain point.' Still hasn't ruled out ground troops. [ABC News]
-
Mar 22NATO Mission Iraq evacuates all personnel to EuropeNATO has relocated all Mission Iraq personnel to Europe amid escalating security situation. Iraq airspace remains closed for 23rd consecutive day. [ABC News]
-
Mar 22Iran FM warns 'zero restraint' if energy facilities targeted againForeign Minister Araghchi warns Gulf attacks represent 'only a small portion of Iran's capabilities.' Threatens 'zero restraint' if Iran's energy infrastructure is hit again. [Al Jazeera]
-
Mar 22Iran's Diego Garcia ICBM launch demonstrates Europe within rangeTwo intermediate-range ballistic missiles fired at Diego Garcia (4,000 km). One intercepted, one failed. Distance puts Central European capitals within Iranian missile range -- raising alarms in Europe. [Bloomberg]
Latest Headlines (March 22, 2026)
Bloomberg -- Mar 21, 2026
Iran launched 2 intermediate-range ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia (4,000 km away). One intercepted by SM-3, one failed midflight. Distance puts Central European capitals within Iranian range.
Military.com -- Mar 21, 2026
2,200+ Marines deploying with 3 warships. Ground options include seizing Kharg Island or coastal raids. White House says no current plan but Trump hasn't ruled it out.
Al-Monitor/Reuters -- Mar 21, 2026
G7 condemns Iran's 'reckless attacks against civilians and energy infrastructure.' Ready to take 'necessary measures' to support global energy supplies and safeguard maritime routes.
Al Jazeera -- Mar 20, 2026
Kuwait's largest refinery (730,000 bpd) struck for 2nd day. Fires erupted. Iran FM warns 'zero restraint' if energy facilities targeted again. Asia implementing electricity rationing.
ABC News -- Mar 21, 2026
Trump considering winding down operations. 2,200 Marines deploying. F-35 hit by Iranian fire -- first US aircraft struck. NATO Mission Iraq relocates all personnel to Europe.
Iraq Status & Activities
Comprehensive Iraq Situation Report
Iraqi Casualties
80+ Killed
90+ injured -- PMF fighters + civilians. Embassy compound previously hit. Kataib Hezbollah commander killed.
US Military Deaths (Iraq)
13 Killed
232 US troops injured (most traumatic brain injuries). 10 seriously wounded. KC-135 crash killed 6.
Airspace Status
CLOSED
23 consecutive days closed. NATO Mission Iraq evacuated to Europe. All flights barred since Feb 28.
Militia Attacks Claimed
75+
Islamic Resistance in Iraq -- continuous attacks. AH-64 Apaches deployed. NATO evacuated all staff.
⚔️ Military & Security Situation
| Factor | Status | Details |
|---|---|---|
| US Bases in Iraq | CLOSED | 23rd consecutive day. NATO evacuated from Iraq. Iraq, Syria, Bahrain, Kuwait all barred. |
| US Embassy Baghdad | STRUCK x2 | Second attack on Mar 14 — suicide drone and missiles caused fire and damage in the Green Zone compound |
| US Counterstrikes | ONGOING | US struck PMF bases at Jurf al-Sakhr and northern Iraq — at least 9 killed, 10 wounded (biggest strike on Iraqi soil since war started) |
| Pro-Iran Militias (PMF) | ACTIVE | Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed 50+ attacks over Mar 6–7 weekend using missiles & UAVs. Kataib Hezbollah, Asaib Ahl al-Haq deeply embedded in security forces |
| Kurdistan Region | UNSTABLE | Iran targeting Kurdish opposition (PDKI base hit by 7 missiles, PAK base struck with 4 wounded). Debris from intercepted drone hit Rotana Arjaan Hotel in Erbil |
| KC-135 Crash | CONFIRMED | US KC-135 refueling plane crashed in Iraq during operations — circumstances under investigation |
💰 Oil & Economic Impact
| Factor | Status | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Southern Oil Fields | -70% | Output collapsed from 4.3M to ~1.3M bpd. Crude storage at max capacity. Remaining output directed to domestic refineries only |
| Oil Exports | NEAR ZERO | Averaged ~800K bpd briefly, then halted. Only 2 tankers loaded before terminals ceased operations. No new tankers can reach southern ports |
| Port Operations | SUSPENDED | All oil terminal ops suspended after Iranian drone boats struck 2 tankers in Iraqi waters near Basra (1 killed, 38 crew rescued) |
| Rumaila Oil Field | STRUCK | Drone hit Iraq's largest oil field (operated by BP & state agencies). Baker Hughes Energy City complex near Zubair also struck |
| Revenue Impact | SEVERE | Oil funds >90% of Iraq's government revenue. Officials call it "the most serious operational threat in 20+ years" |
| Oil Minister Statement | 1.4M BPD TARGET | Iraq aims to maintain 1.4M bpd output for domestic refining amid disruption (Mar 12 statement) |
🏛️ Political & Government Response
- Government Neutrality — PM al-Sudani has told US Secretary Rubio that Iraq should not be a launchpad for attacks. Iraqi Presidency warned against targeting vital sites and called for dialogue.
- Kurdistan Neutrality — Kurdistan PM Masrour Barzani declared neutrality in Dubai, stating intention to stay out of the US-Iran conflict. Stance expected to hold even under US pressure.
- Green Zone Protests — Thousands of pro-Iran demonstrators surged toward the US Embassy in the Green Zone. Iraqi riot police used tear gas to repel them. Notably, prominent militia commanders were absent.
- PM Succession Dispute — US warned of repercussions if Iran-backed former PM Nouri al-Maliki is reappointed. Senior Tehran-backed leaders in Iraq showing reluctance to sacrifice for Iran.
- Sistani’s Influence — Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani committed to protecting Iraq's hard-earned stability. Religious leadership acting as restraining force on escalation.
🤝 Humanitarian & Civilian Impact
| Issue | Status | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Civilian Casualties | 59 DEAD | At least 59 killed and 78 injured in Iraq. Majority are PMF members but includes civilians caught in crossfire |
| Displacement | GROWING | Security disruptions impacting civilian movement. Existing IDP populations from ISIL conflict face compounded vulnerability |
| Basra Airport | HIT | Drone crashed into closed military section of Basra International Airport. Baghdad Airport also intercepted 2 missiles + 2 drones |
| Humanitarian Access | DISRUPTED | Airspace closure and security instability disrupting humanitarian operations and aid delivery across Iraq |
| Cross-border Mobility | RESTRICTED | UNHCR monitoring cross-border movements and internal displacement. Iran-Iraq border situation tense with 3.2M displaced in Iran |
🛡️ Iran-backed Proxy Forces in Iraq — Current Assessment
Kataib Hezbollah
Most powerful Iranian proxy in Iraq. Base at Jurf al-Sakhr struck by US. Affiliated with ex-PM Nouri al-Maliki's political party. Claimed multiple attacks on US interests.
ACTIVE — STRUCK BY US
Islamic Resistance in Iraq
Umbrella term used by multiple militia groups. Claimed 50+ attacks over one weekend (Mar 6–7) using missiles and UAVs. Many claims lack evidence of substantial damage.
CLAIMING ATTACKS
Proxy Effectiveness
Reuters reports no mass mobilization. Commanders are wary — many have become politicians/businessmen with more to lose. Loss of Syria corridor and targeted killings have weakened capability significantly.
DEGRADED CAPABILITY
📅 Iraq — Key Events Timeline
-
Feb 28War begins — Iraq closes airspaceIraqi Civil Aviation Authority orders total airspace closure as US-Israel strikes on Iran commence. Closure renewed every 24–72 hours since.
-
Mar 1–3IRGC launches 230 drones at US bases including Erbil & BaghdadCamp Taji hit by 3 missiles. Baghdad Airport intercepts 2 missiles + 2 drones. Victoria Base targeted. Iraqi security forces intercept multiple threats.
-
Mar 5Drone targets US base near Baghdad AirportVictoria airbase targeted late at night; drone intercepted before reaching objective. Separate vessel collision damages oil tanker at Khor-Zub port.
-
Mar 6Energy infrastructure attacked around BasraDrones strike Rumaila oil field, Baker Hughes Energy City, and Basra Airport military section. Iran hits Kurdish opposition bases — PDKI base struck by 7 missiles.
-
Mar 6–7Islamic Resistance in Iraq claims 50+ attacksWeekend surge of claimed attacks using missiles and UAVs against targets in Iraq and across the region. Many claims lack evidence of substantial damage.
-
Mar 8Southern oil output collapses 70%Production falls from 4.3M to 1.3M bpd. Storage at capacity. Exports plunge to ~800K bpd with only 2 tankers loading before terminals halt.
-
Mar 12Tankers attacked in Iraqi waters; port ops suspendedIranian drone boats strike 2 fuel tankers near Basra — 1 killed, 38 crew rescued. Iraq suspends all oil terminal operations. Oil minister targets 1.4M bpd for domestic use.
-
Mar 12US strikes PMF bases — biggest attack on Iraqi soilAirstrikes on two PMF bases kill at least 9 and wound 10. One base affiliated with ex-PM Maliki's party. US has not officially commented.
-
Mar 13Airspace closure extended 72 more hoursIraqi Civil Aviation Authority extends total closure from Mar 14 noon to Mar 17 noon. All arriving, departing, and overflying aircraft barred.
-
Mar 14US Embassy in Baghdad struck for second timeSuicide drone and missiles cause fire and damage within the heavily fortified Green Zone compound. Second attack since war began on Feb 28.
Aviation & Airspace Status
Iraq Airspace
CLOSED
23 consecutive days closed. Iraq, Syria, Bahrain, Kuwait airspace all remain closed. NATO evacuated.
Emirates (EK)
REBUILDING
Targeting 100% network restoration by Mar 29. Operating expanded schedule from DXB. ~72% of pre-war capacity.
Qatar Airways (QR)
LIMITED OPS
Operating limited flights from Doha Mar 18-28. Transit passengers accepted. Revised schedule through Mar 28.
Flights Cancelled
50,000+
6.2M+ passengers affected. Worst aviation disruption since COVID-19.
🇮🇶 Iraq Airspace Lockdown Details
| Parameter | Status |
|---|---|
| Current Status | FULLY CLOSED |
| Authority | Iraqi Civil Aviation Authority (ICAA) |
| Latest Extension | 23 consecutive days closed since Feb 28. NATO Mission Iraq evacuated all personnel to Europe. All arriving, departing, and overflying aircraft barred. |
| Scope | All incoming, outgoing, and transit flights. No exceptions. |
| Reason | "Temporary precautionary measure based on continued security assessment and evolving regional developments" |
| Baghdad Airport (BGW) | CLOSED |
| Erbil Airport (EBL) | CLOSED |
| Basra Airport (BSR) | CLOSED |
| Review Status | Under continuous review. Airlines and authorities to be notified of any updates. |
| US Embassy Advisory | US Embassy Baghdad issued security alert Mar 9 — neighboring airspace may also be closed. |
🌎 Middle East Airspace Status Map
| Airspace | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 🇮🇷 Iran | CLOSED | Active combat zone |
| 🇮🇶 Iraq | CLOSED | 23rd consecutive day. NATO evacuated from Iraq. Iraq, Syria, Bahrain, Kuwait all barred. |
| 🇮🇱 Israel | CLOSED | Active combat zone |
| 🇱🇧 Lebanon | CLOSED | Hezbollah-Israel front active |
| 🇶🇦 Qatar | RESTRICTED | Limited corridors authorized |
| 🇦🇪 UAE | RESTRICTED | Partially open, active air defense |
| 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | PARTIAL | Limited ops; Red Sea routes active |
| 🇯🇴 Jordan | RESTRICTED | Limited operations |
| 🇲🇳 Oman | OPEN | Alt hub; Muscat routing available |
Central corridor (Iran-Iraq-Gulf) effectively closed. Traffic rerouted north via Caucasus/Afghanistan or south via Egypt/Oman.
[BBC]
✈ Emirates (EK) — Flight Status
REDUCED OPERATIONS
through March 28, 2026
| Detail | Status |
|---|---|
| Dubai Hub (DXB) | OPEN — REDUCED |
| Destinations Served | 110+ (expanding daily) |
| Full Schedule | NOT RESUMED |
| Reduced Until | March 28, 2026 (confirmed Mar 13) |
| Transit Passengers | Only accepted if connecting flight is confirmed |
| City Check-in | ALL CLOSED |
| Rebooking Policy | Feb 28 – Mar 31 bookings: rebook to same destination by Apr 30 free of charge |
| Refund Policy | Cancelled flights: full refund, no fees (Feb 28 – Mar 31 period) |
| Website Updated | Last update: Mar 9 (website lagging behind operations) |
⚠ Important for Passengers
Do NOT proceed to airport unless contacted by Emirates. Check emirat.es/flightstatus within 1 hour of departure. Beware of fraudulent social media accounts offering fake refunds.
✈ Qatar Airways (QR) — Flight Status
SCHEDULED OPS SUSPENDED
limited corridor flights only
| Detail | Status |
|---|---|
| Doha Hub (DOH) | COMMERCIAL OPS SUSPENDED |
| Qatar Airspace | RESTRICTED CORRIDORS ONLY |
| Today's Departures (Mar 14) | RUH, MCT, PVG, MNL, JNB, DFW, YYZ, CMB, CAI, ISB, BOM, LHR, FCO, MAD, FRA |
| Today's Arrivals (Mar 14) | PER, ICN, DAC, JED, KUL, BKK, COK, ALG, MIA, IST, CAI, JNB, LHR, MAD, FRA |
| Flight Type | Evacuation/repatriation only — not regular commercial service |
| Flights Cancelled (total) | 2,000+ at Hamad International alone since Feb 28 |
| Rebooking Policy | Feb 28 – Mar 28 bookings: 2 free date changes (+14 days) or full refund |
| Suspended Routes | Iraq, Iran, Lebanon — fully suspended |
✈ Mar 14 Limited Flight Schedule
Departing DOH: Riyadh, Muscat, Shanghai, Manila, Johannesburg, Dallas, Toronto, Colombo, Cairo, Islamabad, Mumbai, London, Rome, Madrid, Frankfurt. Each flight requires regulatory approval and may change.
Sources: Qatar Airways Official, Al Jazeera
🏠 Other Major Airlines — Status Overview (Mar 14)
| Airline | Status | Suspension Period | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Etihad Airways | REDUCED | Schedule through Mar 16 | Free rebooking for tickets issued before Feb 28 until May 15 |
| flydubai | REDUCED | Reduced network-wide | Feb 28–Mar 31 bookings: free rebooking within 30 days |
| British Airways | SUSPENDED | Through end of March | DXB, DOH, BAH, AMM, TLV all cancelled. Ltd repatriation via Muscat. |
| Lufthansa Group | SUSPENDED | Through Mar 15 (DXB); Tehran until Apr 30 | Includes LH, OS, LX, SN. Free refund for Mar 16–26 tickets. |
| Air Canada | SUSPENDED | Toronto-Dubai until May 1 | Adding Delhi capacity as alternative |
| KLM | SUSPENDED | Dubai until Mar 28 | Stranded 787 evacuated from Dubai on Mar 12 |
| Finnair | SUSPENDED | Dubai until Mar 29; DOH until Mar 29 | Avoiding Iraq, Iran, Syria, Israel airspace |
| Cathay Pacific | SUSPENDED | Dubai through end of March | No resumption date announced |
| Singapore Airlines | PENDING | Cancelled through Mar 14 | Suspension expiring today; check for updates |
| Turkish Airlines | PENDING | Iraq/Syria/Lebanon until Mar 13 | Suspension expired; check for confirmed resumption |
| Oman Air | REDUCED | Select routes until Mar 22 | Muscat functioning as alternative hub |
| Air India / Express | OPERATING | 80 flights today | Scheduled + ad-hoc to DXB, AUH, MCT, JED |
| IndiGo | DISRUPTED | 97 flights cancelled today | Implementing fuel surcharge from Mar 14 |
📋 Aviation Disruption Summary
Flight Rerouting
Central corridor through Iran, Iraq, and Gulf is effectively closed. All traffic redirected north via Caucasus/Afghanistan or south via Egypt/Saudi/Oman. Both routes are significantly longer and congested.
Stranded Passengers
4 million+ passengers affected. Emirates, Qatar Airways, Etihad carry a combined 90,000 transit passengers/day. Repatriation flights from multiple governments ongoing.
Air Cargo Impact
Air cargo traffic dropped 20%. Flight prices between Asia and Europe have surged. Fuel surcharges being implemented by carriers like IndiGo from March 14.