Conflict Duration
Day 22
Since Feb 28, 2026 — "Operation Epic Fury"
Brent Crude Oil
$109/bbl
▲ 56% since conflict start ($70 → $109). Hit $119.50 intraday. Dubai crude $166.
Strait of Hormuz
BLOCKADE
Iran refuses to negotiate reopening while under attack (Bloomberg). 3 full weeks shut. Seafarers trapped.
Global Oil Disruption
15-20M bpd
Dubai crude $166/bbl (historic). Brent-WTI spread widest in 12 years. Qatar LNG still offline.
Iranian Civilian Casualties
1,400+
17,000+ injured. 1,000+ children injured. 3.2M displaced. 20,000+ civilian buildings damaged.
IEA Emergency Release
172M bbls
Record US SPR release. Jones Act waived. Russian sanctions eased. Iran oil on water de-sanctioned.
Ships Attacked/Damaged
20+
120+ naval vessels sunk. 44 minelayers destroyed. 11 submarines eliminated. Military ports crippled.
US Minelayer Ships Hit
120+
CENTCOM: 5,000-lb penetrators hitting underground cruise missile storage. Surface fleet gone.
🕑 Conflict Timeline — Key Events
-
Mar 21Bloomberg: Iran refuses to negotiate reopening Strait of HormuzIranian officials 'reluctant to even discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz as they focus on surviving the US-Israeli onslaught,' according to person involved in direct high-level contacts with Tehran. Oil surges on report. [Bloomberg]
-
Mar 21Dubai crude surges past $166/bbl -- historic peak as Hormuz stays shutDubai crude oil prices surpassed $166/bbl, a historic peak (Platts data). Brent hit $119.50 intraday during Asia-Pacific trading. Oil heading for 5th straight weekly gain. Analysts warn prices could climb further if Hormuz stays closed. [CNBC]
-
Mar 21Hezbollah launches 39 military operations in single dayHezbollah claimed 39 separate military operations on Mar 19, releasing video of missile, rocket, drone and anti-armor attacks on Israeli positions. Targets included troop movements, bases, and settlements along Lebanese-Palestinian border. [YouTube/Reports]
-
Mar 21US drops 5,000-lb penetrator weapons on underground Iranian facilitiesCENTCOM using deep-penetrator bombs on underground storage facilities holding coastal defense cruise missiles. Continuing to destroy mine storage, naval ammunition depots. 120+ vessels sunk, 44 minelayers destroyed. [Anadolu Agency]
-
Mar 21Seafarers trapped on vessels in Hormuz -- shortages of fuel, water, suppliesInternational Chamber of Shipping warns thousands of seafarers trapped on vessels in Hormuz region, facing shortages of fuel, water, and supplies. Hormuz transit calls plunged to near zero from 120+ earlier this year. [Express Tribune]
-
Mar 21Fed's Waller warns prolonged Middle East supply disruptions could stoke inflationFederal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller cautioned that prolonged supply disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict could fuel inflation. Markets brace for economic fallout.
-
Mar 21Trump slams 'foolish' NATO after allies refuse Hormuz helpTrump says US doesn't need NATO's help: 'We never did!' Calls European, British, and Asian refusal to assist in reopening Hormuz a 'very foolish mistake.' Jones Act waived, Russian sanctions eased to offset oil crisis. [Express Tribune]
-
Mar 20Pentagon: Iran's navy is 'gone' -- 7,000+ targets struckHegseth: 'We've struck over 7,000 targets. Surface fleet no longer a factor. 11 submarines gone. Military ports crippled.' Ballistic attacks on US forces down 90%.
-
Feb 28Operation Epic Fury begins -- Khamenei killedUS-Israel launch surprise strikes on Iran. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei killed. Iran retaliates with missiles and drones across the region.
⚔ Key Conflict Factors
| Strait of Hormuz | CLOSED |
| Oil Supply | -10M bpd |
| Nuclear Sites | TARGETED |
| Ceasefire Talks | CONDITIONS SET |
| Hezbollah Front | ACTIVE |
| Iraq Stability | CROSSFIRE |
| US War Powers | APPROVED |
📋 Iran's Ceasefire Conditions
1. Recognition of Iran's rights
2. Reparations for damages
3. International guarantees against future aggression
4. Gulf states deny US launch operations from their territory
Source: President Pezeshkian via Al Jazeera
📈 Brent Crude Oil Price Trajectory
🎯 Iranian Attacks on UAE (as of Mar 13)
| Weapon Type | Launched | Intercepted | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drones (UAV) | 1,714+ | ~1,400+ | ~93% |
| Ballistic Missiles | 334+ | 260+ | ~92% |
| Cruise Missiles | 15 | 15 | 100% |
UAE receives 48% of all Iranian projectiles. 6 killed, 131 injured.
[Breaking Defense]
✈ Gulf Carriers Flight Activity (% of Pre-War)
Sources: Flightradar24, airline schedule data. 100% = normal pre-conflict daily operations.
Regional Impact Assessment
🇮🇶
Iraq
Status: Critical
Airspace closed 22 consecutive days. AH-64 Apaches targeting militias. Drones/rockets hit US embassy in Baghdad igniting fires. Gas supply from Iran cut off.
🇦🇪
UAE
Status: Critical
334+ ballistic missiles, 15 cruise missiles, 1,714+ UAVs intercepted total. Gas facilities shut. Emirates targeting 100% restoration by Mar 29. Dubai crude hit $166/bbl.
🇸🇦
Saudi Arabia
Status: Critical
Ballistic missiles intercepted targeting Riyadh. Eastern oil fields under ongoing drone threat. Overland supply routes to Kuwait critical for aid.
🇶🇦
Qatar
Status: Extreme
Ras Laffan LNG plant still offline (~20% global supply). Qatar Airways limited schedule through Mar 28. Qatar condemned Iran for 'blatant infringement on sovereignty.'
🇮🇱
Israel
Status: High
20+ killed. Hezbollah launched 39 operations in single day. Cluster munitions hitting central Israel. IDF ground ops in southern Lebanon ongoing.
🇱🇧
Lebanon
Status: Extreme
1,001+ killed (118 children, 40 healthcare workers). 2,584 wounded. ~1M displaced (19% of population). UN warns of possible war crimes. France mediating truce.
💰 Economic Impact Factors
| Indicator | Current | Severity |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | ~$109/bbl | CRITICAL |
| Dubai Crude | $166/bbl (historic) | RECORD |
| WTI Crude | ~$97/bbl | CRITICAL |
| Gulf Oil Output Loss | 15-20M bpd | CRITICAL |
| Hormuz Transit Calls | Near zero | SHUT |
| IEA Emergency Reserves | 172M bbls (US SPR) | RECORD |
| Flights Cancelled | 48,000+ | CRITICAL |
| Passengers Affected | 6M+ | HIGH |
Dubai crude hit $166/bbl -- historic peak. Brent hit $119.50 intraday. Oil heading for 5th straight weekly gain. Iran refuses Hormuz talks (Bloomberg). Jones Act waived, Russian sanctions eased.[Wikipedia]
🌐 Diplomatic Developments
-
Mar 21Iran refuses to negotiate reopening Strait of HormuzBloomberg reports Iranian officials 'reluctant to even discuss' reopening Hormuz while under attack. Oil markets surge on the report. Hormuz shut for 3 full weeks. [Bloomberg]
-
Mar 21New Supreme Leader Khamenei dismisses all ceasefire offersMojtaba Khamenei held first foreign policy session, dismissed ceasefire offers. Vows resistance 'until US and Israel accept defeat and pay compensation.' Iran FM: 'We never asked for a ceasefire.' [Express Tribune]
-
Mar 21Trump slams 'foolish' NATO after allies refuse Hormuz deploymentTrump: 'We never needed NATO's assistance -- WE NEVER DID!' Calls European/Asian refusal to send ships 'very foolish mistake.' Jones Act waived, Russian sanctions eased to offset oil crisis. [Express Tribune]
-
Mar 21Fed's Waller warns conflict could stoke inflationFederal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller cautions that prolonged supply disruptions from Middle East conflict could fuel inflation. Markets brace for economic fallout as oil surges.
-
Mar 21France mediating potential 3-month Lebanon truceFrance reportedly mediating potential three-month truce between Israel and Lebanon. Lebanon death toll has surpassed 1,000 with ~1M displaced (19% of population). [Wikipedia/Reports]
Latest Headlines (March 21, 2026)
Bloomberg -- Mar 20, 2026
Iranian officials have become reluctant to even discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz as they focus on surviving the US-Israeli onslaught, according to a person involved in direct, high-level contacts with Tehran.
CNBC -- Mar 20, 2026
Dubai crude surpassed $166/bbl, a historic peak (Platts). Daily Hormuz transit calls plunged to near zero from 120+. Brent up 48% since conflict began. Analysts warn of further price surges.
OilPrice.com -- Mar 20, 2026
Brent near $109/bbl, heading for 5th straight weekly gain. Hormuz shut for 3 full weeks. Trump admin waived Jones Act, eased Russian sanctions, de-sanctioned Iranian oil on water.
Express Tribune -- Mar 18, 2026
Mojtaba Khamenei dismissed ceasefire offers, vows resistance 'until US and Israel accept defeat.' Trump calls NATO 'foolish' for refusing Hormuz help. Seafarers trapped on vessels facing shortages.
Anadolu Agency -- Mar 20, 2026
7,000+ targets struck. 120+ vessels sunk, 44 minelayers destroyed. 5,000-lb penetrators hitting underground facilities. Iran retains some missile capabilities. Hegseth declines to set end date.
Iraq Status & Activities
Comprehensive Iraq Situation Report
Iraqi Casualties
75+ Killed
85+ injured -- PMF fighters + civilians. Embassy compound hit by drone/rocket attacks.
US Military Deaths (Iraq)
6 Killed
KC-135 refueling tanker crash in western Iraq -- all 6 crew confirmed dead
Airspace Status
CLOSED
22 consecutive days closed. All flights barred since Feb 28. Iraqi gas supply from Iran cut off.
Militia Attacks Claimed
70+
Islamic Resistance in Iraq -- continuous attacks. Drones/rockets hit Baghdad embassy. AH-64 Apaches deployed.
⚔️ Military & Security Situation
| Factor | Status | Details |
|---|---|---|
| US Bases in Iraq | CLOSED | 22nd consecutive day. Iraq, Syria, Bahrain, Kuwait all barred. Baghdad embassy hit by drones/rockets. |
| US Embassy Baghdad | STRUCK x2 | Second attack on Mar 14 — suicide drone and missiles caused fire and damage in the Green Zone compound |
| US Counterstrikes | ONGOING | US struck PMF bases at Jurf al-Sakhr and northern Iraq — at least 9 killed, 10 wounded (biggest strike on Iraqi soil since war started) |
| Pro-Iran Militias (PMF) | ACTIVE | Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed 50+ attacks over Mar 6–7 weekend using missiles & UAVs. Kataib Hezbollah, Asaib Ahl al-Haq deeply embedded in security forces |
| Kurdistan Region | UNSTABLE | Iran targeting Kurdish opposition (PDKI base hit by 7 missiles, PAK base struck with 4 wounded). Debris from intercepted drone hit Rotana Arjaan Hotel in Erbil |
| KC-135 Crash | CONFIRMED | US KC-135 refueling plane crashed in Iraq during operations — circumstances under investigation |
💰 Oil & Economic Impact
| Factor | Status | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Southern Oil Fields | -70% | Output collapsed from 4.3M to ~1.3M bpd. Crude storage at max capacity. Remaining output directed to domestic refineries only |
| Oil Exports | NEAR ZERO | Averaged ~800K bpd briefly, then halted. Only 2 tankers loaded before terminals ceased operations. No new tankers can reach southern ports |
| Port Operations | SUSPENDED | All oil terminal ops suspended after Iranian drone boats struck 2 tankers in Iraqi waters near Basra (1 killed, 38 crew rescued) |
| Rumaila Oil Field | STRUCK | Drone hit Iraq's largest oil field (operated by BP & state agencies). Baker Hughes Energy City complex near Zubair also struck |
| Revenue Impact | SEVERE | Oil funds >90% of Iraq's government revenue. Officials call it "the most serious operational threat in 20+ years" |
| Oil Minister Statement | 1.4M BPD TARGET | Iraq aims to maintain 1.4M bpd output for domestic refining amid disruption (Mar 12 statement) |
🏛️ Political & Government Response
- Government Neutrality — PM al-Sudani has told US Secretary Rubio that Iraq should not be a launchpad for attacks. Iraqi Presidency warned against targeting vital sites and called for dialogue.
- Kurdistan Neutrality — Kurdistan PM Masrour Barzani declared neutrality in Dubai, stating intention to stay out of the US-Iran conflict. Stance expected to hold even under US pressure.
- Green Zone Protests — Thousands of pro-Iran demonstrators surged toward the US Embassy in the Green Zone. Iraqi riot police used tear gas to repel them. Notably, prominent militia commanders were absent.
- PM Succession Dispute — US warned of repercussions if Iran-backed former PM Nouri al-Maliki is reappointed. Senior Tehran-backed leaders in Iraq showing reluctance to sacrifice for Iran.
- Sistani’s Influence — Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani committed to protecting Iraq's hard-earned stability. Religious leadership acting as restraining force on escalation.
🤝 Humanitarian & Civilian Impact
| Issue | Status | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Civilian Casualties | 59 DEAD | At least 59 killed and 78 injured in Iraq. Majority are PMF members but includes civilians caught in crossfire |
| Displacement | GROWING | Security disruptions impacting civilian movement. Existing IDP populations from ISIL conflict face compounded vulnerability |
| Basra Airport | HIT | Drone crashed into closed military section of Basra International Airport. Baghdad Airport also intercepted 2 missiles + 2 drones |
| Humanitarian Access | DISRUPTED | Airspace closure and security instability disrupting humanitarian operations and aid delivery across Iraq |
| Cross-border Mobility | RESTRICTED | UNHCR monitoring cross-border movements and internal displacement. Iran-Iraq border situation tense with 3.2M displaced in Iran |
🛡️ Iran-backed Proxy Forces in Iraq — Current Assessment
Kataib Hezbollah
Most powerful Iranian proxy in Iraq. Base at Jurf al-Sakhr struck by US. Affiliated with ex-PM Nouri al-Maliki's political party. Claimed multiple attacks on US interests.
ACTIVE — STRUCK BY US
Islamic Resistance in Iraq
Umbrella term used by multiple militia groups. Claimed 50+ attacks over one weekend (Mar 6–7) using missiles and UAVs. Many claims lack evidence of substantial damage.
CLAIMING ATTACKS
Proxy Effectiveness
Reuters reports no mass mobilization. Commanders are wary — many have become politicians/businessmen with more to lose. Loss of Syria corridor and targeted killings have weakened capability significantly.
DEGRADED CAPABILITY
📅 Iraq — Key Events Timeline
-
Feb 28War begins — Iraq closes airspaceIraqi Civil Aviation Authority orders total airspace closure as US-Israel strikes on Iran commence. Closure renewed every 24–72 hours since.
-
Mar 1–3IRGC launches 230 drones at US bases including Erbil & BaghdadCamp Taji hit by 3 missiles. Baghdad Airport intercepts 2 missiles + 2 drones. Victoria Base targeted. Iraqi security forces intercept multiple threats.
-
Mar 5Drone targets US base near Baghdad AirportVictoria airbase targeted late at night; drone intercepted before reaching objective. Separate vessel collision damages oil tanker at Khor-Zub port.
-
Mar 6Energy infrastructure attacked around BasraDrones strike Rumaila oil field, Baker Hughes Energy City, and Basra Airport military section. Iran hits Kurdish opposition bases — PDKI base struck by 7 missiles.
-
Mar 6–7Islamic Resistance in Iraq claims 50+ attacksWeekend surge of claimed attacks using missiles and UAVs against targets in Iraq and across the region. Many claims lack evidence of substantial damage.
-
Mar 8Southern oil output collapses 70%Production falls from 4.3M to 1.3M bpd. Storage at capacity. Exports plunge to ~800K bpd with only 2 tankers loading before terminals halt.
-
Mar 12Tankers attacked in Iraqi waters; port ops suspendedIranian drone boats strike 2 fuel tankers near Basra — 1 killed, 38 crew rescued. Iraq suspends all oil terminal operations. Oil minister targets 1.4M bpd for domestic use.
-
Mar 12US strikes PMF bases — biggest attack on Iraqi soilAirstrikes on two PMF bases kill at least 9 and wound 10. One base affiliated with ex-PM Maliki's party. US has not officially commented.
-
Mar 13Airspace closure extended 72 more hoursIraqi Civil Aviation Authority extends total closure from Mar 14 noon to Mar 17 noon. All arriving, departing, and overflying aircraft barred.
-
Mar 14US Embassy in Baghdad struck for second timeSuicide drone and missiles cause fire and damage within the heavily fortified Green Zone compound. Second attack since war began on Feb 28.
Aviation & Airspace Status
Iraq Airspace
CLOSED
22 consecutive days closed. Iraq, Syria, Bahrain, Kuwait airspace all remain closed.
Emirates (EK)
REBUILDING
Targeting 100% network restoration by Mar 29. Operating expanded schedule from DXB. ~70% of pre-war capacity.
Qatar Airways (QR)
LIMITED OPS
Operating limited flights from Doha Mar 18-28. Transit passengers accepted. Revised schedule through Mar 28.
Flights Cancelled
48,000+
6M+ passengers affected. Worst aviation disruption since COVID-19.
🇮🇶 Iraq Airspace Lockdown Details
| Parameter | Status |
|---|---|
| Current Status | FULLY CLOSED |
| Authority | Iraqi Civil Aviation Authority (ICAA) |
| Latest Extension | 22 consecutive days closed since Feb 28. All arriving, departing, and overflying aircraft barred. Iraq, Syria, Bahrain, Kuwait airspace remain closed. |
| Scope | All incoming, outgoing, and transit flights. No exceptions. |
| Reason | "Temporary precautionary measure based on continued security assessment and evolving regional developments" |
| Baghdad Airport (BGW) | CLOSED |
| Erbil Airport (EBL) | CLOSED |
| Basra Airport (BSR) | CLOSED |
| Review Status | Under continuous review. Airlines and authorities to be notified of any updates. |
| US Embassy Advisory | US Embassy Baghdad issued security alert Mar 9 — neighboring airspace may also be closed. |
🌎 Middle East Airspace Status Map
| Airspace | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 🇮🇷 Iran | CLOSED | Active combat zone |
| 🇮🇶 Iraq | CLOSED | 22nd consecutive day. Iraq, Syria, Bahrain, Kuwait all barred. Baghdad embassy hit by drones/rockets. |
| 🇮🇱 Israel | CLOSED | Active combat zone |
| 🇱🇧 Lebanon | CLOSED | Hezbollah-Israel front active |
| 🇶🇦 Qatar | RESTRICTED | Limited corridors authorized |
| 🇦🇪 UAE | RESTRICTED | Partially open, active air defense |
| 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | PARTIAL | Limited ops; Red Sea routes active |
| 🇯🇴 Jordan | RESTRICTED | Limited operations |
| 🇲🇳 Oman | OPEN | Alt hub; Muscat routing available |
Central corridor (Iran-Iraq-Gulf) effectively closed. Traffic rerouted north via Caucasus/Afghanistan or south via Egypt/Oman.
[BBC]
✈ Emirates (EK) — Flight Status
REDUCED OPERATIONS
through March 28, 2026
| Detail | Status |
|---|---|
| Dubai Hub (DXB) | OPEN — REDUCED |
| Destinations Served | 110+ (expanding daily) |
| Full Schedule | NOT RESUMED |
| Reduced Until | March 28, 2026 (confirmed Mar 13) |
| Transit Passengers | Only accepted if connecting flight is confirmed |
| City Check-in | ALL CLOSED |
| Rebooking Policy | Feb 28 – Mar 31 bookings: rebook to same destination by Apr 30 free of charge |
| Refund Policy | Cancelled flights: full refund, no fees (Feb 28 – Mar 31 period) |
| Website Updated | Last update: Mar 9 (website lagging behind operations) |
⚠ Important for Passengers
Do NOT proceed to airport unless contacted by Emirates. Check emirat.es/flightstatus within 1 hour of departure. Beware of fraudulent social media accounts offering fake refunds.
✈ Qatar Airways (QR) — Flight Status
SCHEDULED OPS SUSPENDED
limited corridor flights only
| Detail | Status |
|---|---|
| Doha Hub (DOH) | COMMERCIAL OPS SUSPENDED |
| Qatar Airspace | RESTRICTED CORRIDORS ONLY |
| Today's Departures (Mar 14) | RUH, MCT, PVG, MNL, JNB, DFW, YYZ, CMB, CAI, ISB, BOM, LHR, FCO, MAD, FRA |
| Today's Arrivals (Mar 14) | PER, ICN, DAC, JED, KUL, BKK, COK, ALG, MIA, IST, CAI, JNB, LHR, MAD, FRA |
| Flight Type | Evacuation/repatriation only — not regular commercial service |
| Flights Cancelled (total) | 2,000+ at Hamad International alone since Feb 28 |
| Rebooking Policy | Feb 28 – Mar 28 bookings: 2 free date changes (+14 days) or full refund |
| Suspended Routes | Iraq, Iran, Lebanon — fully suspended |
✈ Mar 14 Limited Flight Schedule
Departing DOH: Riyadh, Muscat, Shanghai, Manila, Johannesburg, Dallas, Toronto, Colombo, Cairo, Islamabad, Mumbai, London, Rome, Madrid, Frankfurt. Each flight requires regulatory approval and may change.
Sources: Qatar Airways Official, Al Jazeera
🏠 Other Major Airlines — Status Overview (Mar 14)
| Airline | Status | Suspension Period | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Etihad Airways | REDUCED | Schedule through Mar 16 | Free rebooking for tickets issued before Feb 28 until May 15 |
| flydubai | REDUCED | Reduced network-wide | Feb 28–Mar 31 bookings: free rebooking within 30 days |
| British Airways | SUSPENDED | Through end of March | DXB, DOH, BAH, AMM, TLV all cancelled. Ltd repatriation via Muscat. |
| Lufthansa Group | SUSPENDED | Through Mar 15 (DXB); Tehran until Apr 30 | Includes LH, OS, LX, SN. Free refund for Mar 16–26 tickets. |
| Air Canada | SUSPENDED | Toronto-Dubai until May 1 | Adding Delhi capacity as alternative |
| KLM | SUSPENDED | Dubai until Mar 28 | Stranded 787 evacuated from Dubai on Mar 12 |
| Finnair | SUSPENDED | Dubai until Mar 29; DOH until Mar 29 | Avoiding Iraq, Iran, Syria, Israel airspace |
| Cathay Pacific | SUSPENDED | Dubai through end of March | No resumption date announced |
| Singapore Airlines | PENDING | Cancelled through Mar 14 | Suspension expiring today; check for updates |
| Turkish Airlines | PENDING | Iraq/Syria/Lebanon until Mar 13 | Suspension expired; check for confirmed resumption |
| Oman Air | REDUCED | Select routes until Mar 22 | Muscat functioning as alternative hub |
| Air India / Express | OPERATING | 80 flights today | Scheduled + ad-hoc to DXB, AUH, MCT, JED |
| IndiGo | DISRUPTED | 97 flights cancelled today | Implementing fuel surcharge from Mar 14 |
📋 Aviation Disruption Summary
Flight Rerouting
Central corridor through Iran, Iraq, and Gulf is effectively closed. All traffic redirected north via Caucasus/Afghanistan or south via Egypt/Saudi/Oman. Both routes are significantly longer and congested.
Stranded Passengers
4 million+ passengers affected. Emirates, Qatar Airways, Etihad carry a combined 90,000 transit passengers/day. Repatriation flights from multiple governments ongoing.
Air Cargo Impact
Air cargo traffic dropped 20%. Flight prices between Asia and Europe have surged. Fuel surcharges being implemented by carriers like IndiGo from March 14.